“Beer inflation reaches 6.07% over 12 months”
Guia da Cerveja reports:
“Beer inflation accumulated at home over the last 12 months reached 6.07% in February, according to the National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). This is the highest figure in 27 months. Since November 2023, when the beverage index hit 6.58%, the accumulated figure had not been this high.
“This trend is the opposite of the movement in the broader category in which the beverage is included in the IBGE’s monthly survey. The Food and Beverages at Home index accumulated deflation of -0.09% over the last 12 months. In other words, beer is weighing more heavily in the supermarket basket while food in general is getting cheaper.
“The general IPCA index for the same period was 3.81%.
“If at home beer is weighing more heavily on household budgets, the situation is reversed for consumption outside the home. The price of the beverage is a relief in bars and restaurants, having risen less than other items in the category.”
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Assessment
Beer prices in Brazil are rising at more than 1.5 times the rate of general inflation – 6.07% versus 3.81% – and more than six percentage points above the food and beverages category, which is actually in deflation. As previous Movendi analysis of January 2026 data showed, the trend is accelerating: home-use beer prices rose 5.33% over 12 months in January and have now reached 6.07% in February.
The driver is Big Alcohol’s corporate pricing strategy:
- Ambev, which dominates the Brazilian beer market, saw its consolidated volumes decline 3.3% in 2025, with the core beer segment seeing a high-single-digit drop. Yet net revenue per hectolitre grew 7.5%, and the company’s Brazil Beer EBITDA margin expanded by 110 basis points.
- Heineken implemented average price increases of 6.1% in mid-2025, with some brands rising far more – Devassa by 24%, Budweiser by 10–13%.
Big Beer is selling less beer at higher prices – classic premiumisation strategy that compensates for volume decline by extracting more profit per unit sold. The price increases consumers are paying are not covering rising costs; they are funding shareholder returns. Ambev distributed BRL 21.7 billion to shareholders in 2025 – roughly 90% of its operating cash flow.
Brazil is approaching a decisive moment on alcohol taxation. The Selective Tax (Imposto Seletivo) rate bill is expected to be submitted to Congress imminently, with implementation beginning in 2027. The rates chosen will determine whether the tax functions as a genuine public health instrument or merely a revenue line with minimal impact on population-level alcohol consumption and harm. The alcohol industry has consistently deployed industry-funded studies to undermine alcohol tax reform and lobbied for the lowest possible rates.
The latest beer price data reveals why Big Beer does this: they are protecting profit margins that higher tax rates would cut into to make the industry pay more for the harm their products cause.
The current beer inflation data could become part of this lobbying playbook. Industry actors may point to rising prices as evidence that consumers are already “under pressure” and that additional taxation would be unbearable. But the data shows the opposite: these price increases come from corporate decisions to maximise margins, not from external cost pressures. The revenue goes to shareholders, not to public health or public finances. Pro-health tax increases would generate revenue for the common good while reducing alcohol affordability – exactly what is needed in a country where alcohol harm costs an estimated R$19 billion annually.
The latest beer price data reveals something else: Big Alcohol’s fear-mongering campaign about alcohol tax and price increases is propaganda because when they increase prices to maximise profit margins they are apparently not concerned with any “unintended consequences”.
For alcohol policy advocates, the distinction matters: when alcohol corporations raise prices to expand margins and reward shareholders, that is the market working for private profit; when governments raise prices through pro-health taxation, that is policy in the public interest working for the common good. As the Selective Tax debate intensifies, advocates have an opportunity to use Ambev’s own pricing strategy and financial results to expose that the beer industry can absorb meaningful tax rates – and that the current price increases strengthen the case for ambitious Selective Tax levels.