“Brazil to Reduce Cigarette Use by 2030, but Alcohol Use and Obesity Will Worsen, Study Estimates”
O Globo reports:
“A study published this month in the scientific journal The Lancet Regional Health indicates that Brazil will meet its 2030 targets for tobacco use and the reduction of regular use of sugar-sweetened beverages. The situation will worsen for alcohol use, obesity, diabetes and hypertension.
“For the other indicators, the authors cite obstacles such as limited uptake of policies to reduce alcohol use, with gaps in price-setting and marketing regulation.”
Other Articles on the Same Topic
- Brazil Advances on Tobacco and Sugary Drinks Control but Stays Far From Targets on Obesity, Alcohol and Healthy Eating (Unifesp)
- Fewer Smokers, More Alcohol Use and Ultra-Processed Foods: Brazil’s 2030 Health Scenario (O Tempo)
Assessment
The study, conducted by researchers at CRÔNICAS/Unifesp and the Ministry of Health using Vigitel data from 643,196 adults across Brazil’s capitals between 2009 and 2023, projects that Brazil will exceed its 2030 targets on tobacco use and on sugar-sweetened beverages – the two areas where sustained policy work, including taxation, advertising limits and labelling, has done the work. On alcohol the trajectory diverges: the share of adults reporting heavy episodic alcohol use is projected to rise from 18.8% to 21.3%, with the largest increases among women. The researchers attribute the contrast to “gaps in price-setting and marketing regulation” on alcohol.
The most consequential lever available to close that gap is Brazil’s Selective Tax on alcohol, repeatedly delayed by tax reform sequencing and the 2026 electoral calendar, with implementation still scheduled for 2027. The rates set in the bill will determine whether the tax functions as a public health instrument or as a revenue line with limited population-level effect.
Brazil’s tobacco history shows that taxation, set at meaningful rates and adjusted over time, bends the trajectory of a public health risk factor toward the target – a point the Lancet study underlines by tying the recent stagnation in tobacco use to the absence of any rate adjustment since 2016. The rates set for alcohol in the Selective Tax will determine whether the 2030 alcohol trajectory follows the same path or stays on the one the Lancet study now puts on record.