Global Trends Show People Are Moving Away From Alcohol
Global alcohol consumption is set to decline over the next decade, according to new research from alcohol market analysis firm IWSR (Reuters). The forecast signals a major shift in alcohol use patterns worldwide and highlights how changing consumer preferences, growing health awareness, and demographic trends continue to reshape alcohol markets.
The findings come at a time when many governments, communities, and health experts seek better ways to promote health and development for all by preventing and reducing alcohol harm.
According to IWSR’s first-ever 10-year forecast, which covers 160 markets, global alcohol consumption volumes will continue falling until after 2031.
Even by 2035, total alcohol consumption will remain 1% below 2025 levels despite significant population growth.
The forecast shows that a larger adult population will not translate into higher alcohol use. In fact, IWSR expects the number of legal-age alcohol users worldwide to grow by 9% over the next decade while overall alcohol consumption still declines.
People are also expected to consume less alcohol on average. By 2035, annual per capita alcohol use is projected to fall by the equivalent of two bottles of spirits or one case of wine per person each year.
Declining Demand Challenges the Alcohol Industry
The forecast comes as major alcohol corporations face declining sales and shrinking market valuations. Since 2023, alcohol companies across beer, wine, and spirits categories have experienced declining demand following the post-pandemic sales surge. Alcohol industry representatives point to several factors behind the downturn.
For example, higher living costs have affected household spending. Health concerns about alcohol harm continue to influence consumer decisions. Changing lifestyles and preferences also play an increasingly important role. In addition, the growing use of weight-loss medications may contribute to lower alcohol use among some consumers.
The research suggests that traditional alcohol categories face continuing pressure. Beer, wine, and spirits are all expected to lose volume by 2035. Meanwhile, newer products, such as canned cocktails that the alcohol industry deploys to target youth, are projected to gain market share.
Traditional Alcohol Markets Continue to Shrink
The steepest declines are expected in some of the world’s largest alcohol markets.
- According to the forecast, alcohol servings consumed in China and the United States will fall by more than 18% by 2035.
- Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom are also expected to see substantial declines.
These findings align with broader global trends documented by the World Health Organisation (WHO).
For instance, WHO data show that global per capita alcohol consumption declined from 5.7 litres of pure alcohol in 2010 to 5.5 litres in 2019, representing a 4.5% reduction.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, global alcohol consumption fell further, with estimates indicating an additional 10% reduction between 2019 and 2020.
In fact, WHO data show that 56% of the world’s population aged 15 years and older lived alcohol-free in 2019.
Additional WHO data reveal that alcohol consumption has already declined substantially in several regions. Between 2000 and 2019, alcohol consumption fell by 17% in Europe and 18% in Africa.
Growth Shifts Toward Emerging Markets
Although overall global alcohol consumption is projected to decline, some countries are expected to face rising alcohol consumption and its consequences.
India stands out as the largest growth market for the transnational alcohol industry. According to IWSR, alcohol consumption in India will increase by 38% over the next decade. As a result, India is expected to overtake the United States and become the world’s second-largest alcohol market by 2032, behind China.
Other countries expected to face rising alcohol consumption and its negative consequences include:
- Colombia, 26%;
- Vietnam, 15%;
- Mexico, 13%.
These projections reflect an ongoing shift in the alcohol industry’s focus toward emerging markets as traditional high-consumption markets continue to contract.
However, growth in selected countries will not offset the broader global decline in alcohol use.
Why This Matters for Public Health and Development
The projected decline in alcohol consumption represents an important opportunity to accelerate progress in health promotion and the prevention of alcohol harm.
Alcohol remains a major risk factor for disease, injury, lost productivity, and social harm. Lower levels of alcohol use can contribute to healthier communities, better development outcomes, and reduced pressure on health systems.
The new IWSR forecast suggests that social norms around alcohol continue to evolve. More people are reducing or avoiding alcohol use, and younger generations increasingly challenge long-standing assumptions about alcohol’s role in society. As people are replacing the alcohol norm with healthier and more inclusive social norms, the IWSR predictions also spell out what countries in the low- and middle-income parts of the world will face: more aggressive alcohol industry strategies of marketing and lobbying to drive up sales and block public health attempts to protect people from harmful products and practices.
But if governments such as India, Colombia, Mexico, or Vietnam can put the interest of their people first and take public health action on alcohol, the coming decade may bring not only changes to alcohol markets but also important opportunities to advance people’s health, well-being, and sustainable development.