This study aims to evaluate the MUP’s impact on alcohol purchases in Wales, focusing on price, volume, and consumer behaviour across demographics. It builds on prior UK-based evaluations by examining longer-term impacts, addressing a key knowledge gap in the current evidence base, particularly in the Welsh context.
By looking at changes in purchases over a longer time horizon than previous studies, the researchers can assess whether changes in behaviour are sustained. They are also able to reduce the influence of confounding factors, such as the COVID-19 pandemic (where pubs and bars were initially closed in March 2020 which meant that shops were the only place to buy alcohol for a period), which coincided with the introduction of the MUP policy.
The researchers find the introduction of the MUP policy led to higher prices for low-cost, high-strength alcoholic beverages, effectively reducing sales and increasing overall spending on alcohol.

Author

Sonam Billan, Colin Angus, Brendan Collins

Citation

Billan S, Angus C, Collins B. Evaluating the impact of minimum unit alcohol pricing on purchasing behaviour by different social class and age groups in Wales: A controlled interrupted time series study. Public Health. 2025 Jan 27;240:71-79. doi: 10.1016/j.puhe.2024.12.051. Epub ahead of print. PMID: 39874916.


Source
Public Health Volume 240, March 2025, Pages 71-79
Release date
27/01/2025

Evaluating the impact of minimum unit alcohol pricing on purchasing behaviour by different social class and age groups in Wales: A controlled interrupted time series study

Original research

Abstract

Objectives

Alcohol consumption and its associated harms pose a significant challenge to public health in the UK. To address this issue, Wales implemented a Minimum Unit Price policy (MUP) in February 2020, setting a minimum price of 50p per UK unit of alcohol (10 ml/8 g).

In this study the researchers evaluate the policy’s impact on alcohol sales metrics to gauge its effectiveness in improving public health outcomes.

Study design

Controlled interrupted time series study.

Methods

The researchers conducted analysis on alcohol sales data from February 2016 to February 2022, using the Kantar WorldPanel dataset, which tracks household alcohol purchases. The study employed a difference-in-difference and dynamic differences approach with controls for year fixed effects and a control for COVID-19, comparing the impact of the MUP in Wales to England, where no policy was introduced.

Key outcomes included mean spend on alcohol per shopping trip, mean price per litre, proportion of households purchasing each type of alcohol (penetration), and average volume of alcohol purchased (average weekly purchase in volume and spend).

Results

MUP was linked with reduced alcohol purchases, notably among alcohol users under 28 favouring cheap high-strength alcohol, such as cider.

Effects varied by demographics and alcohol type.

Those aged under 28 decreased cider consumption by 50% compared to England, possibly switching to lager, which saw a 33% spending increase.

Older consumers exhibit short-term price insensitivity. Additionally, there was a 1.33 percentage point rise in wine consumption among lower socioeconomic groups.

50%
Effect of MUP on cheap high-strength alcohol use
Alcohol consumers under 28 years of age decreased cider consumption by 50% compared to England

Conclusions

MUP in Wales changed purchasing behaviour, which should lead to public health benefits in the longer term. There were some interesting effects by age group and alcohol type.

Background

Pricing policies are among the most effective and cost-effective approaches to address alcohol harm, reflected in their status as one of the World Health Organization’s ‘Best Buy’ policies.

Historically taxation has been the primary tool through which governments can influence the price of alcohol, however in recent years Minimum Unit Pricing (MUP) policies have risen to prominence. MUP involves setting a floor price for alcoholic beverages below which a fixed volume of alcohol cannot be sold. Various jurisdictions (Armenia, Australia’s Northern Territory, Scotland, the Republic of Ireland and Ukraine) have implemented a MUP in the past decade and similar floor pricing policies have been in place in others for many years (including several Canadian provinces, Moldova, Russia, Slovakia and Uzbekistan, Australia’s Northern Territory), although these often only relate to specific beverage types such as vodka.

Wales became the second nation in the UK, after Scotland, to introduce a comprehensive MUP for all alcohol on March 2, 2020, set at a level of 50p per UK unit of alcohol (10 g/8 ml of ethanol).

The international evidence on the effectiveness of MUP at reducing alcohol consumption and harm is strong, including studies from the evaluation of the introduction of MUP in Scotland which have demonstrated a 3% reduction in population-level alcohol consumption and a 13.4% reduction in alcohol-specific deaths.

Other studies from Scotland have found the greatest impact on the alcohol consumption of heavier alcohol consumers, women and those on lower incomes and the largest reduction in alcohol-specific mortality in the most deprived groups.

However, there remains limited evidence on the longer-term impacts of MUP, especially in Wales, where studies so far have largely captured the policy’s short-term effects and have not fully explored the interplay of MUP with the COVID-19 pandemic or looked in detail at shifts between different types of alcohol. It was hypothesised that MUP would lead to shifts from spirits (e.g. vodka) and cheap, high strength cider to other types of alcohol.

13.4%
MUP saves lives
Studies evaluating the introduction of MUP in Scotland have demonstrated a 13.4% reduction in alcohol-specific deaths.

Modelling work prior to the introduction of MUP in Wales suggested that a 50p MUP would reduce alcohol consumption by 3.6% with the largest reductions in heavier alcohol users, while increasing consumer spending on alcohol by 1.4%. The model used was the Sheffield Alcohol Policy Model Version 3 (SAPM3), a sophisticated framework combining consumer behaviour analysis and health impact simulations to assess alcohol policy effects.

Buhociu and colleagues found few individuals took preparatory actions due to time constraints. Holloway et al. reported similar findings, especially among those receiving alcohol-related support.

Perkins and colleges reported reduced cheap alcohol availability, some switching to cheaper spirits, and no evidence of substance switching to drugs. Another study predicted limited substance switching, mainly within alcohol, aligning with prior findings.

Anderson et al. studied MUP policies in Scotland and Wales using a controlled interrupted time series (CITS) where England was the control for each, they found an 8.2 % price increase in Wales and there being no increase in alcohol spending for those households that generally bought small amounts of alcohol and in particular low-income households in Wales. They also found alcohol purchases decreased by 7.1 g per adult household per day for those in Wales, with there being sharper declines in cider and spirits.

Findings and meaning

The researchers find the introduction of the MUP policy led to higher prices for low-cost, high-strength alcoholic beverages, effectively reducing sales and increasing overall spending on alcohol.

The study observed an increase in spend per trip for lager among those under 28 years of age, suggesting a potential substitution for other alcoholic beverage categories.

For this same age category, the researchers find a significant reduction in purchases and consumption of strong cider and cheap spirits. Spirits saw a 36 % decrease in average weekly spending (£33·28), while cider penetration decreased by 51 % for those under 28.

This highlights the extent to which different population groups may be affected by the MUP policy and may be relevant to policy makers seeking to understand how the public health impacts of MUP may align with specific target groups in the population.

36%
Significant reduction in purchases and use of cheap spirits
Young people under the age of 28 decreased weekly spending on cheap spirits by 36%.

The study also highlights substantial effects amongst some alcohol consumers, showcasing the policy’s effectiveness in discouraging purchases of cheap, high-strength beverages. It underlines the importance of considering potential lifetime harms for young individuals unaware of the negative consequences linked with alcohol consumption. Consumers’ entrenched habits may persist despite price increases post-MUP implementation, indicating potential short-term price insensitivity. Long-term effects and potential substitution to cheaper alcoholic beverages need thorough examination, considering varying responses to policy changes over time.

Additionally, the combined average weighted purchase in volume for social class E (state pensioners, casual and lowest grade workers, unemployed with state benefits only) in Wales increased and then declined post-2019 compared to England, indicating a rise in per household volume consumption, possibly due to increased purchases of lower-cost, higher-volume, lower-alcohol content beverages. This initial increase is representing a 4% increase relative to the sample mean for total AWP volume in social class E.

Some age groups, like those aged 45 to 54, appeared unaffected by the policy, indicating short-term price insensitivity. This may be attributed to lifelong habits and preferences, leading this age group to maintain their cider consumption despite higher prices. Examining longer-term adjustments in purchases and consumption habits is crucial for ensuring the sustained impact of the MUP on alcohol consumers.

While some evidence contrasts with qualitative studies suggesting a shift to spirits, the overall findings align with quantitative literature, indicating declines in alcohol purchases, particularly for cider and spirits.

This study highlights that price increases led to decreased alcohol purchases, with no rise in spending observed among low-income purchasing groups. The study emphasised the significance of assessing short and long-term impacts and considering potential shifts in consumer behaviour.

The study concludes that the MUP in Wales has successfully reduced alcohol purchases and consumption of high-strength alcohol, in a way that is consistent with what we would expect, with the biggest impacts on products such as cider that are bought disproportionately by heavier drinkers. The findings suggest potential applicability of a similar policy for products with analogous issues, such as certain high-sugar foods. Continued assessment for potential cross-product substitutions is crucial for ensuring desired health effects and informing policy adjustments.


Source Website: Science Direct