A modeling study of France’s obesity and alcohol harm trends finds two possible scenarios for the country over the next decade. If consumption continues at current levels thousands of citizens will develop diseases. But if reductions in consumption are achieved thousands of citizens will live healthily, free of disease.

A modeling study of French obesity and alcohol harm trends provides two scenarios for the future.

  1. If the current trends continue in France by 2030:
  • Obesity will increase from 17.8% to 27.3% among men and increase from 19.3% to 31.3% among women.
  • Alcohol use will be at 52.5 units of alcohol per week for men on average and 35 units for women.
  • This would lead to,
    • 73,000 new cases of cirrhosis,
    • 55,000 new cases of liver cancer,
    • 61,000 new cases of other chronic liver diseases,
    • 425,000 new cases of coronary heart disease, and
    • 550,000 strokes.

2. However, if

  • 1% per year reduction in Body Mass Index, and
  • 5% per year reduction in alcohol use is achieved, over the next decade, France will save,
    • 16,000 people from cirrhosis,
    • 9,000 people from liver cancer, and
    • 13,000 people from chronic liver diseases.

These findings were presented at the European Congress on Obesity from May 10 to 13, 2021. It shows prioritizing alcohol policy solutions and prevention action stands to protect the health and well-being of thousands of French citizens over the next decade.

These findings are timely as they underline the acute alcohol problem in France and a looming crisis, considering the rising alcohol harm amidst the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic in France. Addictions are on the rise in the country driven by the products and practices of the alcohol industry.

Public policies aimed at reducing these risk factors in the French population could mitigate the foreseeable increase in non-communicable diseases linked to alcohol and body mass index,” concluded the authors of the study as per News.in-24.

Authors of the study


News.in-24: “Towards an increase in diseases linked to obesity and alcohol in France by 2030

Alkoholpolitik: “Strong increase in obesity and alcohol-related diseases in France” [Translated from German]