Scientific Article
Trajectories of Alcohol Use Problems based on Early Adolescent Alcohol Use

Joseph M. Boden, Giles Newton-Howes (email:, James Foulds, Janet Spittlehouse and Susan Cook
Boden, J., Newton-Howes, G., Foulds, J., Spittlehouse, J. and Cook, S. (2019). Trajectories of alcohol use problems based on early adolescent alcohol use: Findings from a 35 year population cohort. International Journal of Drug Policy, 74, pp.18-25.
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    International Journal of Drug Policy
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Trajectories of Alcohol Use Problems based on Early Adolescent Alcohol Use: Findings from a 35 Year Population Cohort

Research article



Early exposure to alcohol in adolescence is associated with a range of long term harms. Better understanding of trajectories of alcohol use from adolescence to early adulthood would help target prevention strategies to high risk groups.


Christchurch (New Zealand) general population birth cohort (n = 1265). A latent trajectory model of drinking [alcohol use] behaviour at age 14–16 was used to predict alcohol use outcomes at age 18–35, net of covariate factors known to be associated with substance use outcomes in this cohort.


Three classes of adolescent alcohol use were identified. These were: occasional drinkers [alcohol users], emergent binge drinkers [alcohol users] and increasing heavy drinkers [alcohol users].


This analysis identifies three groups of adolescent alcohol users with differing patterns of use. Emergent binge drinkers [alcohol users] likely require public policy responses to alcohol use whereas increasing heavy drinkers [alcohol users] are potentially able to be identified individually on the basis of patterns of alcohol use and social variables. This group may benefit from psychosocial interventions and are unlikely to respond to a broad public health approach.

Source Website: Science Direct