Between 2015 and 2035 alcohol consumption in England is estimated to cause 253,000 deaths, including 135,000 cancer deaths.

This research shows that a 50p minimum unit price in England would result in reducing all alcohol-attributable deaths by 7,200, including cancer deaths by 670, in the next 20 years.

Author

Colin Angus, John Holmes, Rob Pryce, Petra Meier, Alan Brennan, Sheffield Alcohol Research Group, ScHARR, University of Sheffield

Citation

Angus C, Holmes J, Pryce R, Meier P & Brennan A (2016) Alcohol and cancer trends: Intervention Studies University of Sheffield and Cancer Research UK

Source
University of Sheffield and Cancer Research UK
Release date
17/11/2016

Alcohol and Cancer Trends: Intervention Scenarios

Summary

Alcohol trends were estimated across the whole population for England in 2015-2035. Using a scenario that incorporates both the recent shifts in consumption alongside longer- term trends, the average consumption is estimated to be 14.6 units/week per user and the abstention rate 20.7%.

Under this scenario, between 2015 and 2035 alcohol consumption in England is estimated to cause:

  • 253,000 deaths, including 135,000 cancer deaths.
  • 17.5 million hospital admissions, including 1 .2 million for cancer.
  • £53 billion in costs to the NHS, including £2 billion in cancer costs.

In both relative and absolute terms, and for both mortality and admissions, the biggest increase in the burden of alcohol-related cancers is for oesophageal cancer. This is followed by bowel, other mouth and throat, breast and then liver cancers.

Different alcohol pricing policies were modelled, to predict their impact on alcohol consumption and therefore on alcohol harm, including a 50p minimum unit price for alcohol. The Scottish Parliament passed a bill in 2012 to bring in this policy in Scotland. The measure has been subject to a legal challenge by the alcohol industry but in October 2016 the policy was found to be compatible with EU law by the Scottish Court of Session. Previous research has shown that this policy will reduce average consumption in Scotland by 3.5% (0.5 units/week) and annual alcohol attributable mortality by 7.4% (121 deaths/year).

This research shows that a 50p minimum unit price in England would result in the following over the next 20 years:

  • Reduce all alcohol-attributable deaths by 7,200, including cancer deaths by 670.
  • Reduce all alcohol-attributable hospital admissions by 386,000, including 6,300 for cancer admissions.
  • Reduce healthcare costs by £1.3 billion

Furthermore the effects on consumption and therefore alcohol-attributable mortality are largest among heavy alcohol users and only modest among low-dose alcohol users. Therefore minimum unit pricing is an effective approach to reducing alcohol consumption and alcohol-related harm.

Source Website: Cancer Research UK